Showing posts with label uncertainty. Show all posts
Showing posts with label uncertainty. Show all posts

Verification and Validation in Scientific Computing Review

Verification and Validation in Scientific Computing
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This book is an excellent resource for anyone dealing with concepts of verification and validation. This was an important part of my thesis work, and this reference was invaluable in providing a much-needed comprehensive overview of the verification and validation literature. Both Oberkampf and Roy have done much pioneering in the field of V&V, so the reader is in good/capable hands. The book covers some fundamental V&V concepts, then moves into code verification and software quality assurance (Part II) and solution verification (Part III). It then covers model validation (Part IV), and covers issues in implementation, planning, and management and use of V&V in these activities (Part V). Part V is perhaps the most unique part of the book, but the coverage in all parts of the book is thorough.
This, along with Roache's "Verification and Validation in Computational Science and Engineering" (1998), proved to be an excellent survey of the field. (Much less helpful was the Salari and Knupp's "Verification of Computer Codes" (2002)). Coleman's "Experimentation, Validation, and Uncertainty Analysis for Engineers" (2009) has a more heavily experimental flavor, but is another great resource in this field.

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Risk Analysis of Complex and Uncertain Systems (International Series in Operations Research & Management Science) Review

Risk Analysis of Complex and Uncertain Systems (International Series in Operations Research and Management Science)
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This is an excellent, approachable read for any risk manager; understanding its examples requires only elementary probability, statistics and calculus, though the foundations are much deeper. The author uses direct language, and does not hesitate to declare a fashionable risk analysis technique "worse than useless." The author shows how not to do risk analysis, using simple but devastating examples to illustrate the weaknesses of prioritized investments, subject matter expert opinion, risk matrices and qualitative risk assessments, and the independence assumption. Then, case studies present constructive examples of good practice. Refreshingly, this text clearly distinguishes between threats from Mother Nature, and those posed by an intelligent adversary. There is unevenness, because this is an edited ensemble of papers originally published in a variety of technical journals; however, this is also a strength, because the appeal and scholarship underlying biological, engineering, and social science examples is broad. This is not a how-to guide, and won't help fill in a blank page risk analysis; however, this is an excellent source for the skeptical consumer of contemporary risk management advice and products, and hopefully will have some influence with policy makers who are the source of simplistic and dangerous guidance.

Gerald G. Brown
Distinguished Professor of Operations Research
Naval Postgraduate School
National Academy of Engineering
INFORMS Fellow


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In Risk Analysis of Complex and Uncertain Systems acknowledged risk authority Tony Cox shows all risk practitioners how Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) can be used to improve risk management decisions and policies. It develops and illustrates QRA methods for complex and uncertain biological, engineering, and social systems - systems that have behaviors that are just too complex to be modeled accurately in detail with high confidence - and shows how they can be applied to applications including assessing and managing risks from chemical carcinogens, antibiotic resistance, mad cow disease, terrorist attacks, and accidental or deliberate failures in telecommunications network infrastructure. This book was written for a broad range of practitioners, including decision risk analysts, operations researchers and management scientists, quantitative policy analysts, economists, health and safety risk assessors, engineers, and modelers.

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