Average Reviews:
(More customer reviews)This book, and 1999's "Analysis of sports forecasting" (ASF), seem to be Dr. Mallios's only works known to Google or found in Econlit database. The latter also includes ASF's review by Burton Malkiel, the author of "Random walk down Wall Street". Malkiel's review is broadly favorable; my opinion of the (very similar, I suspect) 2011 successor is not.
"Forecasting ... " gets more than one star for featuring plausible econometric modeling, and often being entertaining. However, the econometrics part is undone by piecemeal presentation of both "theory" and implementation. A simplistic ARMAX-type model is shown, and the author hops from one regression to the next, reporting a "good" prediction error rate (over *several* observations), and commenting on coefficient signs with sports anecdotes.
That's Chapters 7-11. The rest is research done on consultancy assignments (on flu mortality rates, for example), Dr. Mallios's thoughts on capitalism, finance, "technical analysis", financial literacy, etc. Swathes of text are borrowed - lots and lots of quotes - and/or included for no obvious reason. Lack of editorial discipline - of asking "why does this paragraph belong here?" - is remarkable for an (ex-) academic author, as is the disinterest in other people's research of the subject. (That may be a matter of reciprocity: try finding Dr. Mallios among the contributors to "Handbook of sports and lottery markets", published by North Holland - which, unlike Wiley, actually has a reputation to maintain). Then again, it is unusual to see a trained statistician OK a typesetting where the "hat" variables are displayed as "x^(t)", "y^(t)" etc.
Click Here to see more reviews about: Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets: Adaptive Drift Modeling
A guide to modeling analyses for financial and sports gambling markets, with a focus on major current events
Addressing the highly competitive and risky environments of current-day financial and sports gambling markets, Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets details the dynamic process of constructing effective forecasting rules based on both graphical patterns and adaptive drift modeling (ADM) of cointegrated time series. The book uniquely identifies periods of inefficiency that these markets oscillate through and develops profitable forecasting models that capitalize on irrational behavior exhibited during these periods.
Providing valuable insights based on the author's firsthand experience, this book utilizes simple, yet unique, candlestick charts to identify optimal time periods in financial markets and optimal games in sports gambling markets for which forecasting models are likely to provide profitable trading and wagering outcomes. Featuring detailed examples that utilize actual data, the book addresses various topics that promote financial and mathematical literacy, including:
Higher order ARMA processes in financial markets
The effects of gambling shocks in sports gambling markets
Cointegrated time series with model drift
Modeling volatility
Throughout the book, interesting real-world applications are presented, and numerous graphical procedures illustrate favorable trading and betting opportunities, which are accompanied by mathematical developments in adaptive model forecasting and risk assessment. A related web site features updated reviews in sports and financial forecasting and various links on the topic.
Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets is an excellent book for courses on financial economics and time series analysis at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. The book is also a valuable reference for researchers and practitioners working in the areas of retail markets, quant funds, hedge funds, and time series. Also, anyone with a general interest in learning about how to profit from the financial and sports gambling markets will find this book to be a valuable resource.
0 comments:
Post a Comment