Understanding Economic Forecasts Review

Average Reviews:

(More customer reviews)This collection of essays addresses economic forecasting.
As a non-professional I found it somewhat informative but it suffered from being rather dry. It addressed forecasting from a theoretical point of view but didn't do enough to enliven a subject. There's not enough here to really show the reader how forecasting is really done and how it can be usefully employed. There is also little guidance for the lay person in how to regard forecasts, either as useless guesses to fill newspaper column inches or the time between commercial breaks on CNBC or as useful predictions on the future.

Click Here to see more reviews about: Understanding Economic Forecasts

Historically, the theory of forecasting that underpinned actual practicein economics has been based on two key assumptions?-that the model was a goodrepresentation of the economy and that the structure of the economy would remainrelatively unchanged. In reality, forecast models are mis-specified, the economy issubject to unanticipated shifts, and the failure to make accurate predictions isrelatively common.In the last decade, economists have developed new theories ofeconomic forecasting and additional methods of forecast evaluation that make lessstringent assumptions. These theories and methods acknowledge that the economy isdynamic and prone to sudden shifts. They also recognize that forecasting models,however good, are greatly simplified representations that will be incorrect in somerespects. One advantage of these newer approaches is that we can now account for thedifferent results of competing forecasts.In this book academic specialists,practitioners, and a financial journalist explain these new developments in economicforecasting. The authors discuss how forecasting is conducted, evaluated, reported,and applied by academic, private, and governmental bodies, as well as howforecasting might be taught and what costs are induced by forecast errors. They alsodescribe how econometric models for forecasting are constructed, how properties offorecasting methods can be analyzed, and what the future of economic forecasting maybring.

Click here for more information about Understanding Economic Forecasts