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Decision Analysis for Healthcare Managers Review

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(More customer reviews)This is an interesting book that covers a variety of tools helpful to decision makers in the health industry. While these tools have been individually presented in other papers and books, I think this is probably the first book that has it all together. It first covers the very basics of what decision analysis is, as well as the fundamentals of probability. Then there are full chapters on decision trees, modeling group decisions, root-cause analysis, ... (see the table of contents). Within each chapter, there are real-world driven examples from the health industry with explanations of the detailed process in conducting the analysis (e.g. with sample interviews with the decision makers to get the parameters). I think it's a very good reference if you want to learn a decision analysis tool in detail with some health care examples or as a text book on the subject. It doesn't appear to be written to give a brief overview of the field just to satisfy one's curiosity (though the first chapter could help with that). It's more targeted at those who want to learn all or selected concepts and tools in detail.

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The first part of the book explains the various analytical tools that simplify and accelerate decision making. Learn about tools that help you determine causes, evaluate choices, and forecast future events. For occasions when a group, rather than an individual, has to make a decision, you will also learn what tools can help you create group consensus. The second half of the book shows you how to apply analytical tools to different healthcare situations, including comparing clinician performance, determining the causes for medical errors, analyzing the costs of programs, and determining the market for new services. Many practical examples walk you step-by-step through common decision-making scenarios.

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Active Credit Portfolio Management in Practice (Wiley Finance) Review

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(More customer reviews)Bohn and Stein are two of the great innovators in quantitative credit risk, who translated theory into commercial implementation and introduced many of the measurement and validation methods currently used in practice today. This book draws from the wealth of their experience and knowledge and is a masterful overview of single obligor default probability models (structural, econometric, reduced form), model validation, and portfolio models.
Importantly, Bohn and Stein's book possesses something many simply technical works on quantitative credit modeling lack: a point of view. Throughout the book, the authors offer opinions, insights, critiques, and even humor on credit modeling issues. The authors' frankness about just how much judgment goes into the credit risk modeling process is refreshing. Bohn and Stein also offer advice on issues that are not treated in typical credit risk books, such as how to effectively manage a credit research team and practical risk management in a bank.
For those looking for extensive mathematical treatments/proofs of credit risk models, look elsewhere. This is not to say that the book is light on the mathematical details, however. The book contains only the mathematics necessary (which is not inconsequential) for the technical exposition, no more. The book is very readable, and I view its economy as one of the book's strengths rather than a drawback.
This is a book to which I often refer and I cannot recommend it highly enough. A quant's library is incomplete without it.

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Decision Making in Systems Engineering and Management (Wiley Series in Systems Engineering and Management) Review

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(More customer reviews)Disclosure statement: I was an instructor in West Point's Department of Systems Engineering while this book was being written & I own the previous (Spring 2007) edition of this book, not the current edition. That being said, the authors (all senior faculty members in the department) undertook this project because at the time, there were no undergraduate references that attempted to incorporate both hard and soft systems-thinking methodologies and concepts as they apply to decision-making and complex systems. I actually taught the first-year systems engineering design course using this book & found it extremely useful. However, be forewarned -- while this textbook does contain references to traditional systems engineering approaches to generating requirements, system decomposition, and the like, this textbook does not have a focus on traditional systems engineering as it is taught in SE programs which have more of a computer/ electrical/ mechanical engineering flavor. In any event, I think this is a great reference for anyone seeking a methodology to solve complex problems using a systems-thinking approach.

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Decision Making in Systems Engineering and Management is a comprehensive textbook that provides a logical process and analytical techniques for fact-based decision making for the most challenging systems problems. Grounded in systems thinking and based on sound systems engineering principles, the systems decisions process (SDP) leverages multiple objective decision analysis, multiple attribute value theory, and value-focused thinking to define the problem, measure stakeholder value, design creative solutions, explore the decision trade off space in the presence of uncertainty, and structure successful solution implementation. In addition to classical systems engineering problems, this approach has been successfully applied to a wide range of challenges including personnel recruiting, retention, and management; strategic policy analysis; facilities design and management; resource allocation; information assurance; security systems design; and other settings whose structure can be conceptualized as a system.

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Guide to Business Modelling, Second Edition (Economist Series) Review

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(More customer reviews)This book goes beyond the basic or even advanced Excel how-to book. It focuses on business modeling and how to structure any spreadsheet you build, a topic completely missed by any other Excel book. This book has been written by people who build spreadsheet models, not programmers.
Use this book as a good reference on building spreadsheet, be it for business modeling or just plain use of Excel. For years I sought for this a book. Finally I found it. ...

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All organisations face more and more complex decision making, while the risks dependent on their decisions require increasingly explicit understanding of potential outcomes. This special larger format guide is full of practical help on how to build the best, most flexible, and easy-to-use business models for analysing the upside or potential downside of anything from a small development of an existing business to large-scale mergers and acquisitions. Tennent and Friend have completely revised and updated the acclaimed first edition.For anyone who wants to get ahead in business and especially for those with bottom-line responsibilities, this is an invaluable guide to how to build spreadsheet models for assessing business risks and opportunities.

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Two-Sided Matching: A Study in Game-Theoretic Modeling and Analysis (Econometric Society Monographs) Review

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(More customer reviews)This book is totally dedicated to matching theory. The book in itself is rather general, it doesn't focus on any particular application, and discusses matching as a general abstract theory. Therefore the book can be used by both micro- and macro people equally. It basically covers the problem of one-to-one and one-to-many matchings and tries to explain when equilibriums exist and if matches are unique or non-unique and comes with algorithms or constructive methods to actually do the matching. The structure of the book is mostly like math books and at each step presents an algorithm or a theorem or lemma that states a result. In most cases the proof comes afterwards. However this doesn't undermine the practicality of the book as you can easily locate the algorithm or theorem that embodies your required result and just use it. In my opinion this is one of those books you want to keep on your shelf and refer to every now and then when need be.

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Two-sided matching provides a model of search processes such as those between firms and workers in labor markets or between buyers and sellers in auctions. This book gives a comprehensive account of recent results concerning the game-theoretic analysis of two-sided matching. The focus of the book is on the stability of outcomes, on the incentives that different rules of organization give to agents, and on the constraints that these incentives impose on the ways such markets can be organized. The results for this wide range of related models and matching situations help clarify which conclusions depend on particular modeling assumptions and market conditions, and which are robust over a wide range of conditions.

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Calculated Bets: Computers, Gambling, and Mathematical Modeling to Win (Outlooks) Review

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(More customer reviews)To knowledge seekers, the ability to understand and beat a system is the entire game. In this book, Skiena describes how he and some of his students wrote a computer program to win money betting on professional jai alai matches. Along the way, he explains the origins of the game and some of the basic rules, the fundamental bets that can be made as well as the meaning of statements such as pari-mutuel betting. His program does work well, in that he quadruples his money in a short time. Once that is done, he gives the money to a university charity, hoping to make his money from writing this book.
The fact that such a program could be created is not surprising. Jai-alai is a sport where individuals compete one-on-one or in teams of two, and the betting patterns determine the payoffs. It is much easier to simulate these types of matchups and predict the outcome than it is for team games. Baseball managers have been doing such modeling for years. If my memory serves me correctly, the first to do it in major league baseball was Davey Johnson, who kept detailed statistics on all pitcher-batter matchups. All of his decisions concerning who to put up to bat were then based on playing the percentages. That is essentially what Skiena does, although with a different twist. Pari-mutuel betting is where those who wager are betting against each other, so the patterns of wagering determine the payoffs. The patterns of betting are also factored into his predictions. These conditions make it possible for someone to make money creating such a system, but only as long as no one else is doing it. If others begin to use the same system, then the players are betting against each other, destroying the opportunity to make a profit. Therefore, his very act of publishing this book probably means that his system can no longer be used to win at jai-alai betting.
This is an excellent example of how basic mathematical modeling is done. Use data of previous results to form a model of what has happened in order to predict what will happen. Skiena writes with a wit and rigor that is rarely seen in mathematics. Very little mathematics background is needed in order to understand the explanations of the behavior of the program and why it works.
I found this book so interesting that I stayed up very late finishing it. It reads like a novel, but teaches you a lot about mathematics. Instructors in mathematical modeling and computer programming can find many interesting ideas for classroom exercises in it. As long as no one takes it too seriously, it is all in good, clean fun.

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Applied Dimensional Analysis and Modeling, Second Edition Review

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(More customer reviews)Thomas Szirtes' _Applied Dimensional Analysis and Modeling_ is an encyclopedic beast of a book. There are many, many worked examples, both standards that are found in Bridgeman and others (like the period of a pendulum), and novel ones.It also has all of the tricks that allow for effective use of the techniques of dimensional analysis in more complicated problems like breaking the mass into inertial and gravitational aspects to solve problems (and send your thoughts down the road of bad philosophy). For this reason alone it is a useful book.
It has some problems, however, that make it difficult for me to recommend the book to someone who doesn't have a good grasp of units, dimensions, and the difference between the two, even though Szirtes intends the book for those with only "an inquisitive mind and a knowledge of basic mechanics and electricity" and "elementary matrix arithmetic." These problems are:
1.Szirtes' use of dimensions and units is non-standard, calling meters a dimension rather than a unit, making ideas like coversion more difficult and some of the examples more convoluted than they need to be,
2.Many of the problems and examples have implied units, so that he might write a formula for velocity in terms of time as v = 9.81 t + 3.2 [this is not in the text, I use it because it's simple],
3.The more mathematical sections include sloppy proofs that, in my view, don't yield any additional understanding.
These are all serious problems for a beginner, who could pick up some bad habits from the book. Something that makes the book a little less useful than it could be is a paucity of electricity and magnetism examples, which are mechanics heavy.
I think this book would be a good introduction for someone with a solid background in physics or engineering or someone who has looked at a less challenging or thorough book in dimensional analysis (such as Bridgeman). I also think it is also a good book for instructors, being a treasure trove of examples, even if they should be sanitized before being given to students.

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Management Science: The Art of Modeling with Spreadsheets Review

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(More customer reviews)This book takes time to adjust to the crowded typesetting first. Then it gets more interesting as you read more of it. The authors know the subject in depth as well as breath. One problem I have with my students is that many of them do not have the quantitative background required of the book, but the level of the book is what we should aim for in the future. We have to raise the level of our education. The book is well written except for some expected typos for a new edition.

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Now in its third edition, Management Science helps business professionals gain the essential skills needed to develop real expertise in business modeling. The biggest change in the text is the conversion of software from Crystal Ball to Risk Solver to reflect changes in the field. More coverage of management science topics has been added. Broader coverage of Excel demonstrates how to create models. Additional open-ended case studies that are less structured have also been included along with new exercises. These changes will help business professionals learn how to apply the information in the field.

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